I used to use an RSS reader. Then I discovered Twitter and found a ton of new and interesting people to follow. Interesting people that posted interesting content. I quickly adopted Twitter as a way to find new content and began checking my feed reader less and less. Twitter’s RSS feeds are far too frequently updated to make sense in a feed reader, so I gradually abandoned RSS entirely and relied solely on Twitter to follow my friends and discover new content. Trouble was, if you weren’t on Twitter or weren’t tweeting your blog posts, it was hard for me to keep up with your content.

I also follow several Tumblr blogs, and occasionally publish some content of my own (shorter form than this blog, more thought out than Twitter). I really enjoy Tumblr because it makes publishing quick, easy, and beautiful. As a whole, Tumblr is a very slick way to publish and interact with other people’s content, but it’s a walled garden. Essentially, the Tumblr dashboard is a really pretty, social RSS reader – that only allows me to subscribe to a certain subset of blogs. There is no way to follow non-Tumblr blogs inside of Tumblr, so it only works as a centralized content hub if everyone publishes their content on Tumblr. Sure, each Tumblr blog has an RSS feed available, but Tumblr’s dashboard provides enough nifty social features and UI polish that I enjoy reading Tumblr blogs far more in the dashboard than in an RSS reader. So I continue to login to Tumblr – both to publish content and follow my friends.

And now we come to Facebook. Probably the most widely used sharing platform of all, my Facebook stream is chock full of status updates, vacation photos, relationship changes, and shared links from all the people I actually know in real life. This stream is obviously very valuable and very personal, so a quick check to Facebook is definitely a part of my daily routine.

So now I’m in trouble – I have three separate “streams” that I need to check to follow my friends (Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook) and I still have no way to follow anyone that creates using other platforms like WordPress, Blogger, or Posterous. So if you’re on one of those platforms, my only option is to stick your RSS feed into Google Reader. Before I know it, I’ve got a Google Reader account that is just as populated as my other streams.

So now, I have a stream of people on Twitter, a separate subset on Tumblr, my friends on Facebook, and I’m back to using Google Reader for everything else. I have to check 4 different places to follow all the content that is produced by my friends. Having to check all these separate streams is really asinine. Isn’t this the problem RSS was designed to fix?

I recently made a personal commitment to read more books, so I turned to the lengthy “Saved Items” cart on Amazon that I had been filling with friends’ recommendations for the past 18 months and ordered several titles. The first to arrive was Dr. Robert Cialdini’s fascinating and bestselling book “Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion”, which had been recommended to me by several friends, acquaintances, and subject matter experts, including Tim Ferriss, Guy Kawasaki, and Noah Kagan.

In is book, Cialdini (formerly a nationally renowned professor of marketing at Arizona State University) describes Six Principles of Influence which encompass every negotiation tactic and act of persuasion utilized in board rooms, living rooms and farmers markets the world over. That is to say, these are the six “puppet strings” that all of us tug at to gain compliance from those around us. They are vastly and widely applicable, from business negotiations to marketing to disagreements with your spouse. If you look closely, you’ll notice that all of us employ them every day to achieve our goals and influence those around us. Many of them are particularly applicable to entrepreneurs, so I’ve attempted to crystallize the essence of the six principles and share them below.

Cialdini’s Six Principles of Influence

1. Reciprocity

   The concept of reciprocation is pervasive in our society. It’s one of our established social rules – if someone does us a favor, we do them one in return. If someone invites us to a party, we put them on the list for our next gathering. It is a fundamental principle that has been ingrained in all of us since the earliest days of human society. It is the concept of reciprocity that allowed our ancestors to freely share food, skills, and protection with confidence that the resources would be returned in kind. The shared web of interdependency and obligation allowed for the division of labor and specialization of skills – reciprocity was truly an evolutionary advantage.

   Accordingly, it’s no surprise that our modern culture has socialized us all to carry a sense of indebtedness to those that help us first – the “Golden Rule”, Karma, and “Pay It Forward” are all reciprocal social concepts that are instilled in all of us from a very young age. We assign harshly negative labels to those that do not follow the cultural norm – mooch, freeloader, leech. It is no wonder that whenever another person does us a favor, we feel obligated to respond in kind. And so, our natural reactions can become a powerful influencer when exploited. Let me give an example.

   I experienced the reciprocity principle first hand this winter on a ski trop to Breckenridge. Our group pulled into the parking lot and began to unpack our equipment. As we did, a man approached and made a show of welcoming us to the mountain and complimenting our gear. He then handed out “free” Breckenridge wool hats to each one of us. After receiving our thanks, he quickly followed up the gifts with a request for a $10 donation to a charity he was representing. Three of the five in our group immediately ponied up, and the man went on to the next unsuspecting car. I later asked my friend what charity the man was representing. His response – “No idea, but hey – free hat!”

   The above is a perfect example of reciprocity in action – my friends felt compelled to donate to the man’s charity because they had first received the “free” hats, regardless of the nature of the charity’s work or whether they even needed or wanted a hat.

2. Consistency

   The consistency principle states that “Once we have made a choice or taken a stand, we will encounter personal and interpersonal pressures to behave consistently with that commitment. Those pressures will cause us to respond in ways that justify our earlier decision.” In layman’s terms, this means that once we have made a small commitment or statement (especially publicly), it becomes part of our self-identity. For example, if I can get you to make the statement “I love discovering new music” (and who doesn’t), you’ll be more than twice as likely to pull out your wallet when I then ask if you’ll buy my band’s CD. Because not buying the CD would be inconsistent with your previous assertion that you enjoy new music (a feeling known as cognitive dissonance), you feel compelled to purchase the album.

3. Social Proof

   Of all the six principles, I believe we experience and are influenced by social proof most strongly and most often. Social proof refers to the phenomenon that we are far more likely to do or believe something if we have seen others like us do or believe it first. Cialdini cities several studies in the book, including one that analyzed reclusive pre-school children. Researchers showed each reclusive child videos of other children their age observing a social activity, then actively joining into the activity. At recess the next day, the formerly isolated children immediately began to interact with their peers at a level equal to that of normal children in their schools. The principle of social proof illustrates that we often copy behaviors simply because if many others are doing something, we believe it must be the correct thing to do. The children in the experiment perceived that being social was the “normal” thing to do, and which gave them the courage to alter their own behavior. The principle of social proof is applicable to far more than elementary school behavior, and there are further examples in the book that examine social proof as an explanation for buying decisions, mass suicide, and traffic jams.

   Entrepreneurs also run head-long into the social proof principle when raising capital for the first time. Many venture firms are reluctant to invest until they hear that others have invested as well. If you’re able to secure a commitment from a big name VC firm like Sequoia or Khosla, you’ll probably not have much difficulty filling out the rest of your funding round. This is due to the principle of social proof – if others are willing to invest, it must be a good deal. Similarly, when you go to raise a second round of capital, any new investors will want to see participation from the firms that initially invested in your Series A. After all, if your original investors are unwilling to commit further capital, why should anyone new invest? This is often called “The VC Signaling Effect”, and has been discussed in depth by both Chris Dixon and Mark Suster.

4. Authority

   This one is fairly self explanatory – if someone in a position of authority commands you to perform a task, you are likely to comply. This was proved out in the now infamous and controversial Milgram Experiment. You can read the link for further detail, but essentially Milgram proved that despite moral objections and severe emotional distress, subjects were still willing to administer what they thought to be lethal electric shocks to others when commanded by someone in a position of authority. Milgram used his studies to explain the brutal actions of certain German soldiers during the Holocaust, committed despite stated strong moral objection by the soldiers themselves.

5. Liking

   This one seems obvious, but it’s very true – we tend to comply with requests from people who we like (friends, family, etc). Tupperware Corporation has exploited the liking principle to great success; each day thousands of people invite their friends over for tea and finger food, only to eventually ask them to purchase some Tupperware at the end of the party. By relying on the obligation we all feel toward those we like, Tupperware has built one of the largest direct sales organizations in history. In fact, Tupperware no longer sells in retail stores at all, relying almost solely on parties and the liking principle to generate over $2 billion in revenue each year.

   However, it’s not only your friends and relatives that can exploit the liking principle. The liking principle also encompasses arguably the most powerful persuasion method of all – attraction. An attractive, flirty stranger can create the same persuasive “liking” effect that your best childhood friends enjoy. That’s the reason nearly every pitchman, model, and TV commercial family is good looking, and all those Bud Light commercials feature women in bikinis. The more attractive the person trying to gain our compliance is, the stronger “liking” that they create, and better chance they have of persuading us. “Liking” is the principle that explains what Hollywood has known to be true for years – sex sells.

6. Scarcity

   “Hurry, supplies are limited! This deal won’t last! Call now!”

   How many times have you seen slogans like those above plastered on store windows or shouted by TV infomercial salesmen? Probably more than you can count, and it’s because of the scarcity principle. We are far more likely to agree to a request if we believe (falsely or correctly) that we will not have another chance in the future. Fear of losing an opportunity can be a very powerful motivator. It is generally true that things which are difficult to obtain are better than things which are easy to obtain – thus we are subconsciously conditioned to use scarcity as a proxy for higher value. Cialdini mentions a used car salesman that always made sure more than one interested buyer was present whenever he was selling a car. The competition increased anxiety in both buyers and made the car seem that much more attractive, which without fail increased the price the salesman got for the car.

Cialdini’s book provides far more detail on the above principles than I have included here, including numerous studies and examples ripped straight from current events that illustrate each principle in action. I’d recommend Cialdini’s book to any entrepreneur, product manager, or marketer, as well as anyone looking to be more persuasive in general. It’s an absolutely fascinating read.

I have begun to think and write about China more and more lately; there is such an incredible opportunity across the Pacific that seems largely unobserved by a majority of Americans. The Chinese economy and population base is so large and modernizing so rapidly, and has transformed from 3rd world to 1st world in a matter of decades (that same evolution took us hundreds of years here in America). As you can see in this chart from Google, China’s internet adoption has blown past the United States, both in terms of growth rate and sheer number of users. And they’re still at only 20% internet penetration. Mobile phone penetration is actually higher than internet penetration, approaching 60% depending on what study you read – that’s over 500 million mobile phones. This in itself is an interesting dynamic, as it seems that in China the mobile phone (rather than the PC) is the primary method of internet use and communication. As I understand it, this is a result of the relative difficulty and expense of getting a computer and home internet line installed – particularly in rural China, which does not yet have the widespread and developed communications infrastructure that we enjoy in the United States. Coupled with pervasive and cheap mobile phone service and a proliferation of advanced smart phones, the mobile internet has become the single point of connectivity for millions of Chinese. However you measure China’s growth, it doesn’t take an economist or venture capitalist to see that the pace of technological change, adoption, and transformation in China is unlike anything experienced in America or anywhere else.

I saw a statistic the other day that by the end of 2010 China will have more mobile internet users than there will be people in the United States. That’s staggering. There are countless companies with tons of VC hype and astronomical valuations climbing all over each other to try to capture even a sliver of the ~90mm user U.S. mobile internet market. And yet there is a Chinese market that is orders of magnitude larger and remains relatively unaddressed by America’s top online properties.

For example – Facebook has experienced tremendous user growth outside of the United States, adding almost 10 million global users in March 2010 alone. Below you’ll see a top 10 table of Facebook’s growth by country in March – millions of users were added in Asian countries like Indonesia and the Philippines, and according to Facebook nearly all of those new users access the service exclusively on mobile devices (wow). And yet despite the obvious resonance with Asian consumers, Facebook remains conspicuously absent from China due to a near total blockage by the Chinese government.

Not to say there aren’t very significant and well established Chinese social networking players (including Tencent Inc., which is debatably the largest social network in the world) but I just find the under representation and seeming indifference of so many American Web 2.0 properties to be surprising. So many of today’s startups seem laser focused on attacking the United States mobile market, and are at the same time so haphazard in their Chinese strategy.

I do understand that there are significant regulatory and cultural hurdles to clear when moving a U.S.-based service into the Chinese market. In addition to censorship and restrictions on foreign business ownership, there is no guarantee that a product that has been successful in the United States will resonate with Chinese consumers. Many of today’s social media and self publishing centric products and services simply aren’t workable in a country that does not allow the free flow of information or exchange of ideas that we enjoy here in America.

It seems that the swell of Chinese internet users (on mobile devices especially) are like a tsunami being held back by poor access to broadband and isolated by the dam of government censorship. Though there are millions of users already climbing over and around the dam (with things like proxy servers and other methods of circumventing the “Great Firewall of China”), I expect that the real wave will come over the next several years as the government finds it increasingly difficult to censor its citizens, and increased broadband penetration plugs more and more Chinese into the web. As China comes online in a bigger and bigger way, it’s going to be harder than ever for American startups and social media players to compete without confronting the tsunami head on.

I wrote earlier about the increasingly visual nature of media and news in today’s society. The prior post focused mostly on photography, but there is another visual technique that has risen dramatically in prominence in recent years, particularly online – the infographic. Infographics aim to make complex data sets easy to digest and understand. An entire newspaper has risen to prominence due to the quality of its infographics. There are whole blogs dedicated to the subject. A good infographic can pack a lot of data into a small space and help the viewer to draw out a pattern or conclusion. However if the infographic is poorly or deceptively constructed, that conclusion may not be the same one you’d see if you examined the underlying data. While there are many great and useless infographics out there, I’d like to take a bit of time to focus on a couple deceptive ones.

Deceptive Infographic #1: The Heathcare Vote

The first infographic I want to highlight comes from the otherwise excellent Political Math Blog. The diagram aims to portray the House of Representatives vote split for the recently passed healthcare reform legislation in comparison with the vote splits for other major social reform. It is an interesting diagram because it illustrates how objective information can be displayed in a manner that influences your perception of the data.

In the first three vote blocks, the dividing line between “Yay” and “Nay” is drawn down the middle of the “split” party, indicating that there are party members on both sides of the debate. However, in the final vote block on heathcare reform, the creator of this diagram has specifically arranged the colors such that the Yay/Nay dividing line runs directly between the parties, with the dissenting Democrats hidden off to the right side. This increases the contrast between the parties, and makes the Heathcare Reform vote appear more partisan and divisive than it actually was.

When viewing an infographic (or any seemingly “objective” data), make sure you consider whether or not the designer is trying to “lead” you toward drawing a specific conclusion or feeling a certain way by presenting the data in a certain manner.

Deceptive Infographic #2: Household Income vs. Debt

I originally found the next graphic on Digg, where people were whipping themselves into an outrage about how unfair life is, how capitalism is broken, and how America is headed to hell in a handbasket. Except this graphic is totally flawed (click for a full size version).

The graphic compares the trend in average household income (the green bar) with the trend in total household debt (the red bar), and reaches the “nightmare” conclusion that the latter is quickly outpacing the former. The problem in this graphic is that comparing annual income to total debt is apples to oranges. Suppose I make $50,000 a year and owe $250,000 on my mortgage. Is this necessarily a Bad Thing? No. Here’s why:

This comparison completely neglects the other side of the household balance sheet – assets. You borrowed $250,000 on that mortgage to buy the house, so you also own an asset (the home) worth $250,000 (putting aside the housing crash for a second). You also have likely saved some of your income each year, which is building up as an asset in your bank account. Both of these assets can be liquidated to eliminate the debt. The debt is only dangerous if it is not matched by an asset of equal or greater value.

In addition, the diagram assumes you never use any of the income you earn in the time between each bar (several years) to pay down any of the debt, yet you continue to borrow. If that’s the case, the prison is of your own making. I could go all day, but the bottom line is, this is a completely flawed comparison. Debt is not inherently a Bad Thing. Irresponsible debt (debt that is not counterbalanced by assets) is a Bad Thing.

The lesson here is that you should pay attention to context and the validity of comparisons before drawing conclusions, especially when data visualization is involved.

In Summary

Infographics are incredibly useful for conveying a lot of data at a glace, and draw the eye with bright colors and interesting shapes. Often an infographic is the best way to communicate data to a relatively unsophisticated or novice audience. However, when you come across a flashy data visualization, sure the author didn’t create it to tell a specific story. Always take some time to envision the data behind the chart – would the data table create the same reaction that the infographic elicits?

Update: Here is a great infographic that was sent over to me today by my friend Vanessa – it depicts the magnitude of the recent Deep Water Horizon oil spill that occurred last week in the Gulf of Mexico. It does an excellent job putting the magnitude of the spill in context with other well known spills (Exxon Valdez, Amoco Caldiz) and also illustrating just how much oil was spilled relative to the world’s daily consumption. Check it out. Even better, they make the underlying data available here.

In the 19th and early 20th centuries, the American “Wild West” was a place of great opportunity and great adventure – rapid development, gold rushes, land grabs, and a booming population provided an opportunity for enterprising young men and women to strike out on their own and “grow up with the country”, as the famous quote goes. The West took on an almost mythical aura as a place where anything was possible and success was limited only by ambition.

Even after the American West had been developed, the United States has remained the epicenter of the world’s economic growth and a proverbial “land of milk and honey” for immigrants from across the globe. The best and brightest students from countries the world over aspired to one day travel to America to make their fortunes and pursue the “American Dream” – and countless many have done just that. However, while the western world has been the place to be for the past 150 years, I’m beginning to think that the next 150 may see a stark reversal of the compass needle.

Take a look at the picture that accompanies this post (click for a striking full size version). That’s Shenzhen, China – the biggest place you’ve never heard of. With some 14 million residents, it’s far bigger than New York City and remains the fastest growing city in China. Not only is Shenzhen exploding, it’s young, smart, and hungry. It’s estimated that 20% of China’s PhDs work in Shenzhen, and the average age of its citizens is less than 30. Thanks to billions in foreign investment, it’s young and educated population, and its status as the first of China’s Special Economic Zones, Shenzhen is also the #1 export center in China, accounting for 22% of the country’s total. All of this is particularly striking when you realize that less than 30 years ago, Shenzhen was nothing more than a sleepy fishing village with a population of 30,000 (that all of this growth has coincided exactly with the establishment of the special economic zone and a capitalist economy is best left for a separate discussion). Shenzhen has also developed as a manufacturing powerhouse, and is the origin of nearly every shiny consumer gadget you own with “Made in China” stamped on the bottom. And if you’re reading this on a Mac, iPhone, iPad, Thinkpad, Dell, Kindle, or HP (among many others), that includes the hardware your browser is running on right now.

John Biggs from CrunchGear spent several weeks in Shenzhen and wrote an excellent series entitled “CrunchGear in China: Where Tech Sausage is Made”, which explores the massive consumer goods (mostly electronics) manufacturing industry that has catapulted Shenzhen to prosperity and global prominence. CrunchGear paints an incredible portrait of the Chinese culture and the efficiency with which they conduct their manufacturing. If you have some time to read through them, they provide some awesome perspective on the seething, dirty, and ruthlessly effective economic powerhouse that’s growing up in the East. The articles are here: Introduction, China the Factory, Getting from There to Here, The Ex-Pats, Shanzhai.

So for all the reasons laid out above (and even more that I’ll elaborate on in a future post), I see the East as having many of the same characteristics that made the American Wild West so appealing – rapid development, a population boom, and a modernizing economy. And although the modern day Chinese gold rush has already begun, I can’t help but think there is still a vast opportunity in East Asia for those willing to make the leap and “grow up with the world”.